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(Sorry Wales, I just haven’t figured a way of sorting out the population histories given the local government reorganizations that went with Devolution) These two figures show Lexis diagrams for (a) the number of reported motorcycle fatalities in … Continue reading
This is based on the crude road injury rate (all injuries), and a reconstructed population up to 90 for England and Scotland from 1985 to the end of 2014. The colors show the injury rate (per capita), for all … Continue reading
I really enjoy reading Deborah Mayo’s blog. I don’t really understand enough about the underlying philosophy – and even gently reading about ideas such as Popper asking for severe challenges (rather than out and out falsifiability) bring this home. … Continue reading
The wonder of the blogosphere is that I rediscovered a paper I had been meaning to think about for a long time: the paper reports Cook, Gelman and Rubin’s proposals that we: Specify a model and then simulate parameters from … Continue reading
Mean square error is defined as . To be defined, it requires that is fixed, constant (albeit unknown). In other words, it’s a very frequentist thing, but it’s such a dominant way of evaluating the performance of estimators that it … Continue reading
Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet — The Endeavour. There’s a Bayesian version of the rule of three given here. Nice.
Here’s some code to animate a rejection sampler